This year’s edition of the Tour of California is upon us, having kicked off earlier with a circuit race in Long Beach, that saw the young Colombian sprint phenom Fernando Gaviria handily outkick Aussie Caleb Ewan and a late charging Peter Sagan. The Tour of California is always a fun race, attracting well known European riders who enjoy coming to take in the sun, stay in posh hotels, and expand their spotlight in vibrant California. The focus of this year’s race appears geared towards the sprint teams, as perhaps you could expect by looking at the roster of sprinters competing in this race, including Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, Gaviria, Ewan, Alexander Kristoff, Sagan, let alone solid or up and coming sprinters from smaller teams. Cavendish makes for an interesting participant, as we haven’t seen much of him since his crash during last year’s Tour de France, though he’s likely rebuilding form for this upcoming July and here more to collect a hefty participation check as he simply wasn’t much of a factor in today’s sprint.

Overall Contenders

The overall will almost assuredly come down to two stages, those being stage 2 ending in the somewhat famous Gibraltar climb, and the fairly lengthy 34.7 km time trial just South of San Jose coincidentally (or not) around the Specialized headquarters. Thus, the winner of this year will have to be a fairly strong all-rounder, capable of gaining ground on the climbs and on the flats.

The contenders for the general classification aren’t perhaps as high in stature as their sprinter counter parts, but they do make up an interesting collection of riders. The most intriguing and perhaps favorite for the overall is none other than young phenom (and also Colombian) Egan Bernal of Team Sky. After winning last year’s Tour de L’Avenir, known as the U23 Tour de France, Bernal has had a tremendous debut Spring in the World Tour, starting with a victory at Colombia’s Oro y Paz race, beating the likes of Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran (both with 2nd place results at the Tour de France), before placing 2nd at the Tour de Romandie, and having been placed 2nd late during the Volta Cyclista a Catalunya before crashing out, both races having been won by Team LottoNL-Jumbo’s Primoz Roglic. During the Tour de Romandie, Bernal showed his tremendous abilities as a time trialist, winning the individual time trial over the likes of Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis. Bernal has been absolutely sensational, with both raw power and a penchant for attacking reminiscent of a young Alberto Contador, and if he’s in form, will be tough to beat, particularly with a young but strong Team Sky backing his efforts. Team Sky isn’t known to throw support behind a young rider, so their faith in Bernal is a strong endorsement of his capabilities.

Other notable contenders include Adam Yates, twin brother of current Giro d’Italia leader Simon Yates, who surely wants to match his brother with a strong result. Yates may lack raw power necessary to post a top time trial performance, but look for him to challenge on Gibraltar. Rafal Majka of Bora Hansgrohe is also a veteran rider who has solid climbing prowess though will likely lose time in the time trial, and thus may be at most a challenger for the podium. American’s Brent Bookwalter, Tejay Van Ganderen, and Peter Stetina have all assumed leadership for the race for their respective teams, BMC of the former two, and Trek for the latter, though might be looking for a podium result rather than an overall title. Bookwalter and Stetina are solid domestiques who look for a home race like the Tour of California to chase personal results, as Bookwalter has placed 3rd and 4th overall in recent years. Bookwalter is more of an all-rounder, a good-at-everything but not great-at-anything sort of pro who may challenge for a podium spot, but will be hard pressed to top it. Stetina is an interesting case, having been an up and coming climbing talent before a nasty crash during a race left him with a catastrophic knee injury. He’s managed to make a strong comeback, notably serving as Contador’s climbing companion during recent editions of the Tour de France, though also looked for results in previous editions of the Tour of California, with solid results in 2016 on Gibraltar, as well as last year’s time trial, where he placed 2nd.

Van Garderen is an interesting case, having reached a point in his career he can no longer be considered an up-and-comer, yet never having turned the corner to be the grand tour contender that was expected of him, starting with his 5th place result during the 2012 Tour de France. As much as he’s tried to reach the podium during a grand tour, he’s lost the faith of BMC mamanagement who have instead encouraged him to chase results in week long stage races, particularly on American soil. In the past, Van Garderen has showed ability to climb and time trial, and thus makes for a dark horse candidate for the overall win. I don’t think he has the raw ability to take down an in-form Bernal, but he does have experience and probably confidence on home soil to chase a result.

Also of note is the young American’s Neilson Powless and Brandon McNulty, the former of whom appears to have the support of his team. Both are solid climbers with huge time trial engines, with McNulty having been the junior world time trial champion before placing 2nd in the U23 world time trial championships last Fall. Powless is a little more known at this point, as he’s now in the world tour circuit racing for Team LottoNL-Jumbo, but McNulty by all indications has the bigger engine and potential, though rides on the smaller Rally Cycling team, and will likely ride in support of teammate Rob Britton. Britton in himself is a solid racer, having won past editions of the Tour of Utah and New Mexico’s Tour of the Gila, though at best is likely chasing a podium spot. I’d guess Rally is backing Britton explicitly as a way of taking the pressure off of McNulty to obtain a result, but I’m sure McNulty has the green light and is hoping to put in a great performance towards an overall result. I’d be remiss not to mention McNulty’s breakaway perforance in February’s Tour of Oman, in which he very narrowly missed pulling off a victory by 50 meters on his world tour debut, thereby showcasing the tremendous talent he posseses. Powless on the other hand notably attacked on Gibraltar in 2016 before being swept up by eventual stage and overall winner Julian Alaphillipe, announcing his presence as an up-and-coming talent while then on the Axeon Hagens Berman U23 team. While I’d be surprised if he pulled off the win on either stage, he has the potential to produce top results on Gibraltar and the time trial, and so look for him to be in the conversation for the podium.

Pavel Sivakova of Team Sky is another neo-pro phenom, of Russian origin but French citizenship, who could be one to watch for, but likely in the future as he’s mainly been in support roles during his short tenure on the team. Lawson Craddock of EF Education First - Drapac p/b Cannondable, is similar to Van Ganderen in abilities, though despite early career promise hasn’t shown many results and will probably look for one here, as will Ian Boswell, who came up with Craddock on Bontrager Cycling Team (now Axeon). Boswell thus far has shown to be a solid climbing domestique, first on Team Sky, and more recently on Katusha, and will likely have the green light to chase a result. The enigmatic Lachlan Morton is another racer to keep an eye on, though has shown an up and down career despite having won the Tour of Utah in 2016.

On a personal note, I enjoy seeing California’s own Sean Bennett of Axeon Hagens Berman in the race, having raced against him at the amateur Berkeley Hills Road Race in 2014, in which he won in dominating fashion. I vividly recall him having repeatedly attacked the pack, prompting me to ask him what he was doing before realize he was just toying with us, and at which point he attacked for good (with about 20 km to go) on his way to the win. Bennett has had a solid Spring in his inaugural (and perhaps only at 22 years of age) season with Axeon, with a top 10 in the U23 Tour of Flanders, and a podium position at the always tough Tour of Redlands domestic race. He’s shown to be a solid all rounder, and I’d expect him to a solid candidate for a breakaway and perhaps a result if they can stay away.

Gibraltar

Gibraltar being the only summit finish of this race, will likely prove decisive in the overall battle. Luckily, the climb is well known to Californians, and has a plethora of Strava data to fit my model to. At 9.9 km in length, with an average gradient of 8%, it’s not a particularly formidable climb for the world tour riders, relatively to those you might see in the Alps or Pyrenees, but being the only climb of the race, it will be a make-or-break effort for overall hopefuls. Alaphillipe won the stage on 2016 with a time of 27:54, at an estimated 6.09 W/kg, and I’d guess we’ll see a similar performance tomorrow. Notably, this value is slightly higher than we’ve seen out of this past week’s Giro d’Italia as noted in my previous entries, though note those performances came after a solid stint of racing with stronger competition, and thus with slightly more fatigued legs. Alaphillipe’s effort and tomorrow’s come early in the race after a few flat stages, and thus we’d expect riders to be slightly fresher. At any rate, the requisite equation (fit from Strava data) calculate power-to-mass from climbing time on the segment, is given by

<power>/mass = (11241 W/kg*s)/(time (s)) + (-0.38974 W/kg)

[editor’s note: working on MathJax fix]

with the corresponding curve and data shown below. Once again, we only show and fit to efforts that have been recorded with a power meter, and of riders who self report mass. I’ll be sure to update this equation after tomorrow’s stage when more data will arrive, as well provide an analysis of efforts!